What would happen if the IT industry collapsed in India? What would happen if world-wide companies stopped outsourcing to India? What would the state of the Indian economy be?

Before 2010, this question deserved a very different answer. But today, things have radically changed.
Let's first check the vital statistics of the IT industry in India.
In 2015,
  • Total revenues = $ 146 billion (of which $ 48 b was domestic)
  • Total number employed = 35 lacs (directly employed professionals) (3.5 m)
  • Total number employed indirectly = 1 crore (other than technical) (10 m)
  • So Total employment = 1.35 crore max (1% of India's population 1.3 b)
  • Top company (TCS) accounted for 10% of the industry revenues, and the Top 10 accounted for 36%.
  • Largest private sector employer is from this sector
  • Contribution to India's GDP = approximately 9.5%
  • Globally, it claims a 12% market share
Learning from the above statistics -
  • Concentration of economic activity and wealth is amazingly high, catalysed by this sector. This is a reflection of the global trend.
  • Wherever this sector goes (cities), everything becomes suddenly expensive!
  • Per capital opportunity is perhaps the highest among all professional sectors in India
  • Direct benefit to Indian economy is through (a) consumer spending of the directly employed professionals, (b) creation of certain best practices that are utilised across other sectors, (c) ease of integrating technology with local governments (Centre / State / Lob, and of course (d) through the indirect employment generation
  • Indirect benefits are plenty - spurt to Indian ingenuity and absorption of the really talented, global showcasing of India's potential, integration with the biggest and mightiest corporates around the around, digital housekeeping for the world, creation of a local practices pool that can be used for a bigger vision, etc.
  • Full credit to the pioneers of this sector, starting with Bhishma Pitamah Shri F C Kohli, for creating this very vibrant ecosystem in India. The GoI is now leveraging that confidence fully in its future vision, as we will see in a moment.
But, the real story begins now. The India Stack, and how India can break through.
  • The arrival of the Modi government seems to have put the spotlight firmly on this sector. All major transformational initiatives like DIGITAL INDIA and E-GOVERNANCE are now being built around digitising transactions through JAM TRINITY and building an INDIA STACK, as it is called. (That was one jargon-filled sentence! Sorry.)
  • India Stack - The really big story - And I doubt it would have been possible without the presence of this hugely vibrant IT sector in India.
  • What is it? The combined initiative of UIDAI, CCA, DeitY, and NPCI which has created a unified, integrated layer of digital tools and services (or information system highway) is called the India Stack. Similar to the creation of the Internet (based on TCP/IP stack), where browsers and applications form the front end for access, here too the private sector players can focus on building customer facing solutions that ride on India Stack. [ a good analogy of innovation possible is Uber which uses the building blocks of GPS, Google Maps, electronic payment and smartphone - none of which Uber built nor owns ]
  • So what will India Stack do? It will lead to the (possibly) successful implementation of the grandest government vision so far (sorry if I sound like a government ambassador - I am not) to digitise, simplify, speed-up and transform services delivery to citizens, and overall governance. Yes, the Digital India vision.
So, long story short - eliminate the IT sector from India and you eliminate these -
  1. The Digital India vision - we'll need to buy all the standards and softwares from foreigners to build it now. Well, almost!
  2. Bye bye, JAM Trinity - The Jan-Dhan + Aadhar + Mobile combo that is starting to deliver benefits to the poor directly through handsets (a true revolution) had its major pieces put in place by indigenous IT and Telecom pioneers.
  3. The India Stack - perhaps the largest publicly owned (not corporate-owned) standards-set globally. It can democratise business and entrepreneurship like nothing else can. So no more India Stack.
  4. Go the paper way - triplicate and quadruplicate copies of each document please, and stand in the queue quietly there.
  5. And yes, the 1 crore plus unemployed talented people who'll come on to Quora running an ideas riot (that'd be good, actually!)
You decide.

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